STI - The Unloading Activity

If could rate today's action, i give it a 80% bearish. After lunch, i saw the market suddenly surged up and i thought wow, bearish bearish action to trap the last minute bull in. I remained calm and hold on to my shorts and after 2hrs 15-30min later, i saw the unloading effect where STI started to dip lower. At the end of the session, the market suddenly went up about 7-8 points which was exactly what i was looking for. This is what i call an annihilation of the public. This bullish hope will soon turn sourish.

Yesterday i blogged about the final breakout and limited upside. Although the market did not dip today, however the upside was capped with sellers putting out shorts. How could the market continue higher when huge amounts of shorts are exerted? I shall continue to hold my bearish view for the short term until i see unusual activities which negate this belief.

Ronald K

SGX - New Wave of Sellers

11.13AM
I was suspicious on the recent rally for SGX and decided to inspect further. Looking at the 30min chart, i managed to discover sellers are putting out shorts. Will this be the end of a rally for SGX? I don't know, however since sellers had already put out their shorts, i am just merely following their actions. I will continue to examine day by day to see if i could spot an action from the sellers which tells me that the rally is over for SGX. For the short term wise, i am only looking for shorts. The longer term requires more evidence for me to make my determination on whether the rally continues or discontinues.

Ronald K

STI - A Final Breakout

Because of the losses i am taking on my recent trades, i am watching very closely on STI to see where will it ultimately end. Finally the picture revealed itself. I won't say today is the end of the rally or further upside is impossible, but today i believe is the day one should look for some short. The daily chart gave me an overall picture of the imminent downturn, however the minute chart double assured this possibility. I was late to short again, however i managed to squeeze my shorts in the last 30min before the market closed.

Cosco and Noble looked like they had ran their upward course. Both stocks revealed big sellers are secretly trying to bring this stock for a reaction. A reaction might or might not come tomorrow. However, i am looking to short into strength if any rally occurs, which i think is highly unlikely. The upside is pretty limited. And finally, there were scripts in CityIndex for shorting Cosco! Let's watch for tomorrow's action.

Ronald K

Update

Minutes after making this post, i received an email from ChartNexus as shown below.

It Was Reported That STI Could Be Forming A Bull Trap - Is It True?

Noble Grp

Dear Traders,

Recently, it was reported that STI could be performing a Bull Trap. Bull Traps are dangerous because it's a bear rally disguised as a bull rally. While seasoned traders can easily tell how to identify and avoid bull traps, novices do not have the experience to do the same. Therefore, what happens is that they are trapped in long positions when market suddenly plunges. That's why it's called a bull trap.

However, how do we confirm that the bull trap is indeed forming? As technical analysts, there are two secrets that our traders look out for.

Join us for our FREE 2-Hour Seminar as we reveal these two secrets!

Cosco - The Gap

Cosco is my all time favourite singapore stocks. Why? Because the little generals in Cosco likes to use gaps as one of their maneuvers. Cosco displayed signs of irrational activity during this gap up which of course caught my attention. It tells me that there is about 70% of chance that it is due for a reaction. How deep will this reaction be? I don't know for the moment until i see certain evidences of buying/selling activity . I tried shorting Cosco today, however there wasn't any scripts from CityIndex, what a waste! On another note, i took a small lose on Yangzijiang last friday. I knew it would react, but still i took a loss because my psychological state of mind is playing mind games with me.

Ronald K

STI - Bull to continue to charge?

I must admit that i made some small losses during this rally based on my predictions on the past few posts. However, I also made some good gains like SGX and some others like Capitaland which i did not blog about. This week, i witnessed something very unusual. There wasn't any reaction for the public to get in. Looking at the whole campaign, I am getting suspicious each day. One reason could be because big players' account were being filled and they are planning to raise the price to certain price level before taking it down. I expect the market to react which would create an alibi for a more sustain bull move. Since it did not, i am raising my bearishness view to 80%. 

For next week's action plan, look at the chart above. The midterm trend is still down and STI is reaching a resistance level circled in oval where all the shorting took place previously. When it reaches that level, i will look for big blocks activity to either take the market down or bring the market higher. For now, we wait and watch.

Ronald K

Trade Record 2

I haven't been actively trading on the index recently due to my recent work schedule and work load. Posted here are the results of my recent trades. I still believe patience is the key to success which i am still lacking. Anyone of you have any ideas to cultivate patience? Kindly share it here. :)

Ronald K

Yangzijiang - Bull should be out of steam

Looking at yangzijiang today, it seems like the current bull is out of steam. I believe today is a good short for a quick profit. The current bull seems exhausted without any rallying power. For tomorrow, if it reacts, i shall see how much sellers emerge to challenge the bulls, however if it continues to rally, the upside is pretty limited and allows for more shorting. It can't be rallying much further because that would create an alibi for the little generals to bring this stock down the drain in the long run. For this stock to be in a bull phase, the stock has to react or if it continues to rally, then the bear phase has not yet been completed.

Ronald K

STI - A Reaction to challenge the Bulls

I was particularly interested to see how much more strength does STI have after today's rally. At 4.45pm, I am affirmed that STI is due to have a reaction tomorrow. This reaction will challenge the bulls to see how much supply is present after a 2 day rally. Will sellers again resume its downward force or is it a reaction for buyers to buy more. I will judge closely and update this blog. For those who missed this rally, you will get your chance in again. For this market to rally higher, I need to see ample and strong evidence of preponderance footprints left behind by the little generals of the market.

Ronald K

Update:

My analysis is off a little for STI yesterday. The market went higher today, however i viewed it as a weak upswing. The market has to react because there are too just many overhanging buyers waiting to get out of position. I still hold my view that STI is due for a reaction. I am looking to short even though i made some small losses today. 3016 is the psychological resistance level for STI, however it performed better than expected today, so 3045 is the next resistance level for STI and when it reaches that level i will look into the minute chart for activities of the little generals to bring the market down. If the market reacted today, i would say a strong cause for a bull market is establishing. However if the market continues further up, i vehemently hold my view that the bear market is not over yet. I made my analysis too hastily yesterday thinking that a bull market is in the making, seems like i might be wrong after all. Patience patience is what i am lacking. My cognitive dissonance is playing mind games with me. :(

Kepcorp - Sellers overiding Buyers?

I was looking at Kepcorp's chart and studying the campaign closely. I am almost 90% sure it is in a distribution mode now where sellers are looking to bring prices further down. Signs of fatigue could be observed in many areas of the chart where buyers were already very exhausted. With oil prices going up, up and up, Kepcorp is going to take a toll on its earnings i believe and when that happens this stock is going down the drain. The recent run up could be to trap more buyers so that sellers could sell more. Today is a good short and the stop loss is tight. I believe the the risk and reward ratio is there where huge profits could be made with minimal losses.

Ronald K

Update:

More weakness developed for Kepcorp as i continue to watch it trading over the exchange. I am thinking right after the CA which turns into XA, the real selling will start fast and furious. The recent article http://www.sharesinv.com/articles/2011/03/21/keppel-corp-outperform-sti/ has no effect on the prices of Kepcorp. If little generals view this as a bullish news, the price would have already soared! 

SGX, an effervescence rally.

SGX rallied today. Everyone thinks this rally is a breakout/start of a bull. I think of it as an effervescence burst of strength where the buyers are going to be trapped anytime soon. It might happen tomorrow or the day after tomorrow. If you are an investor, a decent profit can be made. If you are a trader, you need to watch closely and know where your profit targets are. As mentioned in my earlier post, SGX is in the hands of the strong players. The short term looks good, however for the mid and the longer term, i need to see more evidence of strength before this stock will take a good turn on its way up. I hate buying at breakout price because it posses certain risk, instead i love buying at depressed low prices when everyone is fear. For now, we watch and wait.

Ronald K

Update

SGX continue its rally in the short term. See the circled area, insiders investment account is being filled. Can you spot it?

SGX - Buying starts now!

SGX exudes signs of strong buying. It looks like the market is poised for a rally anytime soon. It might happen tomorrow or maybe 1 or 2 more days of price dipping before the real rally happens. If you are an investor and buy now, you wont go wrong, however if you plan to wait, i am not sure if it will dip any further and if it does, it is a good sign. If it rally, take this as a temporary surge only until i see more evidence of accumulation taking place. If you are a trader, your profit margin is huge and losses are minimal if you know where is the stop loss is. Whatever it is, the stock is currently in the strong hands of the strong buyers.

Ronald K

The Aftermath...

As predicted accordingly, most of the stocks trended lower based on my forecast 2 months back. Indeed i was right, the high was caught where short telling was taking place when the public still thought that it was a bull market during the Jan period.

Ronald K

Trade Record

I had recently started to trade the Hang Seng and Dow Jones Index and this is my track record. There is still room for improvement in terms of taking profit and cutting losses. However, the strategy employ is what i wrote all over in my blog and i discovered more astounding signals as i trade the indexes. I am trading small lot size not because i am afraid of the market nor i am a big trader. This account that i opened is just a mini account to see how much i can grow with a small base. I can trade gargantuan size but that is not my goal. My aim is to grow this account to as much as i possibly can.

Do note that the spreads are wide using the CityIndex margin account. It is impossible to make huge profits if you are not able to catch the high and low. Hang Sang is about 20 pips to break even and the Dow Jones is 4 pips.

Ronald K