StraitsAsia - Bearish Exhausted Gap

I haven't been updating my blog due to my ever busy schedule, so finally I have the time to once again perform some dissecting and analysis. I was looking at StraitsAsia and realized the upmove should be over by today. Not only today exudes bearish symptoms but the gap is exhausted. This gap is to entrap all the last min bull to buy when big sellers are selling big time. I am only looking for shorts.

Normally there are different forms of gap in different phases of the market. See the attached.

Bull Gap - A gap to encourage the sellers not to sell and disallow any public purchasing. Imagine, if you see the stock at 1 dollar yesterday and it went 1.2 today in the opening, will you buy?

Running Gap - A gap that is about to lift off to a higher level. Hold on to your long if you have and buy on a reaction if you haven't done so.

Exhausted Gap - A gap that is exhausted and is ready to tumble. This gap is like where all the profits have been taken by the big sellers and they are now looking to bring the market down.

Ronald K

Trade Record 3

Trading is really a tough game, not only is it difficult to control emotions, it is also difficult to regain back confidence once a huge amount of money is lost. For me, i can be technically good, but my biggest enemy is my mental state of mind. Sometimes, impatience beget me to enter too early, sometimes cutting losses too early caused me to lose more money. Sometimes, i just couldn't cut loss at all because i knew that's exactly the correct entry. What i could do as a trader is to empty my mind, let go my ambitious goal and allow my mind to stay in a calm and stateless mode where it resembles a non living thing like a rock. To achieve that would require discipline and many hours of practice. She would have won the battle by 70% if emotion is virtually non-existent.

Ronald K

NOL - Volume Churning

I was watching closely on NOL today and saw a powerful buy signal which tells me if any stock were to rally tomorrow, NOL will be the forerunner. Not only there were strong accumulation in place, the volume were churning too where it tells me big players were supporting this stock from further dipping. The rally could start tomorrow or anytime soon and those who enter today should be able to profit handsomely from it.

Ronald K

Cosco - The Big Shortists Are In!

Last week, I was suspicious about the recent strong rally about Cosco and blogged about the Luring Activity created by the big players to catch the bullish public. Today I finally saw gargantuan shorts being put out by guile players which would of course annihilate all bullish symptoms. The range 2.34-2.38 price is not only where the resistance lies, but also an area where big players are targeting to put out shorts. It hit a high of 2.39 today before draining all the way down to 2.29. If i would rate today's bearish action, i would give it a 85% because most of the late bulls who bought at high would probably start to panic now and that's the real motive of the big players.

Ronald K

Cosco - The Luring Activity

Cosco had been one of the strongest stock to rally during this upmove. Why is it so? Look at the down trend from mid Jan to mid March and that is the clue. The angle of slide is about 45 degree which tells me big players are planning for a big bull move. Normally an angle of 45 degree should be on a high alert for investors as a rebound could be fast and furious as in the case for Cosco.

Observe the circled area, these are areas of breakouts where public participation was stimulated by big players. Of course, big players have already bought at the bottom and the reason for these breakouts are to increase Cosco's visibility and to encourage public participation so that once a well define resistance level is hit, big players could then unload the stock to the unwary public at ease.

I still have not seen signs of huge profit taking or short selling. However i believe Cosco's big resistance level is between the 2.34-2.38 region. The risk and reward should now favors the bear side.

Ronald K

STI - Bull to Continue?

Yesterday, there was some form of buying, however it was not clear on the exact direction of the market. Could it buying be a form of more distribution or could it be a continue of the uptrend? Today i witnessed that the gap was filled with strong buying activity. I believe the up move shall continue however with limited upside. I was lucky not to take a short position because i knew i would jeopardize myself.

Should STI continue further, the next level should be the 3223-3245 level. If i would dissect this LIVE before the market even continues higher and read the minds of the big operators, the past 2 days action could be big sellers taking profits and they are planning to put out shorts soon around the 3223-3245 level. I still believe this is a bear rally with a much bigger bear surfacing soon. For now, the market shall continue it's way up until we see short selling by big sellers.

Ronald K

STI - The Break of the Backbone?

Last Friday, i warned about the low volume rally. If I interpret it correctly, last Friday's strong closing is a bear trap to lure in the last minute buyers so that it create a false sense of direction where the public thought the market would continue higher this week, when big sellers have already sold shorts around the congestion area i circled on my post "STI - A Squeeze of Shortist".

On Monday, big sellers had began taking profits for what they had bought at the bottom. They could have also started short selling, however i would wait for a more pronounced signal before taking a short position. Today STI's gaped down caused malaise which could be the break of the backbone of the late March - April rally. I would now look for how much buyers emerge to fill the gaped down area which would then allows me to determine if the rally should continue or if it had ended.

Ronald K

STI - A Squeeze of Shortist

Ok, so STI ended on a higher closing and did not react accordingly to what i anticipate. Now, it seems like STI is on a steroid where there is no stopping of this ferocious bull move. The continuous up move has certainly caused malaise on my analysis and how i view the overall market. Do i think that the uptrend will continue? I don't know, but i am not betting on the long or short side because either side is equally risky for trading at the moment.

Looking at the whole campaign, the circled area tells me that this upmove is squeezing shortists who bet for a down move when resistance was reached. It gives me an indication that the bull move may not be over yet, however this could be a bear trap. I got a sensual feeling STI is near a market high and exchange insiders are heavily involved in selling stock to the public. They therefore wished to avoid panic selling at a time when they wanted public buying.

Something is brewing in STI. The dreadfully low volume on the rally is not natural. It's eerie and scary. If you are still long, take extra precaution.

Ronald K

How to Detect Insiders Accounts Being Filled

I was trading the Dow Jones and I saw a typical operation that i thought i should share with the public. Although it doesn't happen every night and since it just happened, it was fresh off my mind that i could draft out the operation with pictures and wordings illustrated. Understanding these operations had definitely helped me in my trading and liberate me from trend lines and other technical indicators.

A friend of mine asked me, oh, that looked like double bottom, so it's a long. In my previous post, i already mentioned that i don't look at chart patterns because that's not the approach how insiders look at charts. Instead understanding supply/demand and psychology is more concise and precise which allows for more flexibility in your trading rather than a fixed pattern which etched in your mind that produce rigidness which doesn't allow you to react fast when the market turns. Finally, trust me, when all these actions are happening in real time, there is no way that you can determine that it is a double top or double bottom. End of Day and Live trading is two different ball game.

Ronald K

My Short Term Shorting List

STI is approaching towards the big resistance level at 3180-3185. The past 3 days action tells me that the volume is churning and big sellers are quietly putting out shorts. It may or may not hit the 3180 level, however i anticipate that for tomorrow's action, it will move towards to the 3180-3185 and close low for the day. See the imaginary bar i drew on the STI chart. If my vague premonition of the imaginary bar appears combine with a high volume, this will tell me that the uptrend has ended in a good fashion. I will then look for shorts on up bars. I have fished out a basket of candidates and they will be my short to mid term shorting victims.

Ronald K

Wilmar - Volume Churning

If I am to view Wilmar's bull campaign, i believe it is still on the uptrend where the real sellers have not appeared yet. Based on the closing price for Wilmar today, there were volume churning, however the price was not dipping much and this to me was a bullish symptom. Sellers were trying to drive prices down south but did not succeed. 

For Wilmar to break through the resistance at 5.52, evidence of volume churning, accumulation, panic selling, strong buying would need to appear when it dipped, not when it break through the resistance at 5.52. When either of those intangibles appear, i will then look to long this stock. Of course, there is still a possibility that major sellers may emerge which would then negate all the bullish preparation.

Ronald K

SGX - Last Burst of Strength

 

I got to admit that i was not making the money i expected during this rally. How could it be? Yes, i will admit i made some fatal mistakes and not being able to react fast when the market turns. If i would sum up the entire bull campaign for this rally, i would say that to be a proficient and excellent trader, one would need to be mindful and react to market conditions when it doesn't go according to your initial plan. I have learned from this lesson that it is vitally important to have a game plan (A), and plan (B) if it doesn’t always work out as you think it might.

Since SGX is one of the most often stock i blogged about, i was looking at how will it end since it didn't react or correct to what i expected. I can't be a 100% sure that if this is the end of a rally for SGX but i am firm that SGX is due for a reaction. Trading is all about probability and my analysis tells me the reaction starts today.

Looking at the chart, the rectangle portion was where all the big players investment accounts were filled. It rallied for 2 days and went into absorption mode where it was absorbing all the overhanging supply (oval circle). Yesterday was a strong indication that the market was not reacting further and buyers were in control. Today, i believed most of the profits were already taken by the big players where there was a sudden burst of strength. If SGX is to continue to rally higher, i believe the 8.73-8.75 range will be the last price area where all profits will be taken and shorts will start to emerge.

As for STI, i have not seen any appearance of true real sellers, however a small minority of sellers have already emerged. I will cultivate patience and wait till i see the majority of sellers emerge before taking a short position. The resistance for STI is between the 3180-3185 range.

Ronald K

STI - The Current Trend

If i view and interpret STI's midterm trend correctly, the above screenshot depicts it all. It is still moving down south where it had not breakout of the long term downtrend yet. Sometimes the market just retaliates and refuses to relinquish even though many symptoms reveal that sellers are already putting out shorts. This is the way it is, the market is all about mind games, if you are able to decipher the minds of the big players, then you have a winning edge.

STI has already reached it long due reaction level at 3130. Should it rally further, the next level is between 3135-3150. I am only looking for shorts, however i know i shouldn't be too bearish or bullish. I believe next week, the market will reveal it's true colors. Either the bulls continue it's upside or the bear will entrench the bull territory.

Ronald K