At 11.06am, there was a selldown of 2000 lots, and to most public that was a bearish behavior because of big lots selling. Well to me, I don't view it as bearish sign but a selldown to scare the public to liquidate. Furthermore, there wasn't any follow though of further selldown after that 2000 lots.
At 11.30am on April 26th 2013, I SMSed my friend and told him that Carriernet seemed ready. I remembered at that time Carriernet wasn't in top volume and it was hiding at the background. While my friend watched volume, I don't because volume cannot tell me the readiness of the stock at the precise timing.
So at 12.08pm, I whacked 500 lots to test the stock strength and there was only a follow through of 220 lots after my buying. At 12.29pm, I whacked another 500 lots to test if more buyers would follow me. To my disappointment, there was only 11 lots after my buying. At that point of time, I thought that the stock was not ready and I could be wrong at my timing. In my mind, I was very confident that on April 26th that day, the stock was really ready to rebound because as a mind reader I knew what the BBs were thinking and doing. They were trying to depress the stock as much as possible and making it look dull and weak so that the public would not be entice to buy it. So finally at 12.53pm, I whacked my last 1000 lots to test if more buying would follow through. To my surprise this time round, there was about 4000 lots of follow through after that between 12.54pm to 12.58pm at a short amount of time.
Now I would stress that Volume is great however it cannot tell you at precise timing that when is the stock ready to run/tank down. If you study the time and sales as attached, you would see that I am performing probing all these while WITHOUT any major volume. The big volume only comes in AFTER my buying and so I can conclude that I was the FIRST to cause the spike up in price where I did it BEFORE all the big volume. So at 5.04pm, Carriernet closed at the day high of 0.028 as shown below and I concluded that a big piece of good news should be releasing soon.
April 29th, 2013. I did nothing but just watching Carriernet towards the end of day. The price closed 1 pip higher at 0.028/0.029. At 8.43pm that very same night, a good news was released.
April 30th, 2013 yesterday, the stock opened at 0.029/0.03 at 9am. At that point of time if I had unloaded, I would have made 4K. Because I knew I was probing to sharpen my skill and not for the sake of making money, I did not unload as I wanted to use the same analytical mindset to test the strength/weakness of this stock.
On April 30th, 2013, 10.35am, I remembered the Queue was very heavy. The Buy/Sell Queue was 12000K/15000K. From all these years of market experience, I knew something bad was about to come and so without hesitation, I sold off my first 1000 lots to test if sellers would appear. Once again, after my 1000 lots of selldown, it triggered an avalanche of selldown and the price dropped 1 pip from 0.028/0.029 to 0.027/0.028. I was again the FIRST to cause a panic selldown before the MAJOR Volume selldown of about 6000-7000 lots. So I concluded that supply was overcoming demand and indeed sellers were waiting to selldown to book some profits first.
At 30th April, 2013, 3.50pm yesterday, I sold off my last 1000 lots and once again, I was again the FIRST to cause a panic selldown before the MAJOR Volume selldown of about another 5000 lots or so.
At 4.29pm, the stock dropped another 1 pip down to 0.026/0.027 which was my buying price on April 26th, 2013. I concluded that the stock contained a lot of sellers and it was heavily manipulated. If I did not book profits, I would have suffer reactions.
While probing may not suit everybody, it definitely serves as a learning curve for me to understand the dynamics of supply and demand in the stock market. As the great Jesse Livermore used to do probing during his era, it is only wise for me to practice and revived what he did in the post modern era of today's market. What he skillfully performed 100 years back was still very valid and effective for any willing risk takers who loves to test the strength/weakness of a stock. I hope this post would give one a better microscopic view of how probing actually works. :)
Ronald K - Market Psychologist - The Big Speculator
